A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
